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When a society loses its memory, it descends inevitably into dementia. Mark Steyn
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January 21, 2012

From electable and inevitable to awkward

Make that awkward and defensive. Mitt under fire isn't as smooth as advertized. So if you bought into that narrative it's time to update.

For the record, I believe Mitt is still the favorite to win the nomination. (Not my favorite, the favorite.) Which is not to say he'll be a strong candidate against Obama. I think Michael Walsh nailed it a few weeks ago:

The Dems have already telegraphed a good deal of their playbook — they’ll paint him as a nervous, grinning, stuttering, heartless capitalist who’s also a “weird” social-issues nut — and hope to scare the hell out of the electorate, which by now has grown used to the dull pain of the Obama administration.
He's not shaping up as a fierce campaigner against President Obama, either. No one who wants to defeat Obama can be comforted by this exchange between him and Laura Ingraham

The polls are saying that Mitt is likely to lose, and maybe lose big, to Gingrich in SC. If so, he'll also lose his "winner" veneer, which was never based on much besides speculation and wishful thinking.

Dan Riehl tweets:
Would be a real shame if Tea Party traitor Nikki Haley can't deliver her own state to Mitt. Oops!
With Perry gone, Dan's for Newt. I'm not. I've transferred my allegiance from one hopeless candidate to another who's almost hopeless. Not that it matters much; even if it's not over by March 6, date of the Virginia primary, the only guys on my ballot will be Willard M. Romney and Ron Paul. So I'll be choosing between staying home or spoiling my ballot with an invalid write-in.

Ladd Ehlinger Jr. says it's time to concentrate on something else.


Thanks to Michelle Malkin for the Buzzworthy link.
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3 comments:

  1. I may end up with three candidates going to Tampa; the Mitton, the Baggage, and the Scarecrow. Could we have a brokered convention? Could somebody like Jeb end up with the nomination? At least it ain't like the Ds and BORING.

    ReplyDelete
  2. IF NEWT WINS SC, IT'S NOT AN UPSET - NEWT LED IN SC FOR MONTHS.

    MITT TEMPORARILY TOOK THE LEAD AFTER IOWA AND NH.

    BUT NEWT LED BEFORE THAT - AND AFTER.

    WHAT WE HAVE IN THE RACE NOW IS TOTALLY AS EXPECTED:

    THE RELIGIOUSLY RIGHT GUY WON IOWA (SANTORUM THIS TIME AS IT WAS HUCKABEE LAST TIME); THE LOCAL FAV WON NH, AND THE LOCAL FAV IS WINNING SC.

    FLORIDA WILL; TELL US WHO WILL GET THE NOMINATION.


    RCP Average 1/18 - 1/20 -- -- 33.5 28.5 13.8 11.8 2.5 Gingrich +5.0
    PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/20 1450 LV 2.5 37 28 14 16 -- Gingrich +9
    Clemson Palmetto Poll 1/18 - 1/19 429 LV 4.7 32 26 11 9 -- Gingrich +6
    PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/19 836 LV 3.4 35 29 15 15 -- Gingrich +6
    Insider Advantage 1/18 - 1/18 718 LV 3.6 32 29 15 11 3 Gingrich +3
    Rasmussen Reports 1/18 - 1/18 750 LV 4.0 33 31 15 11 2 Gingrich +2
    PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/18 379 LV 5.0 34 28 15 14 5 Gingrich +6
    Politico/Tarrance (R) 1/17 - 1/18 600 LV 4.1 30 37 11 10 4 Romney +7
    NBC News/Marist 1/16 - 1/17 684 LV 3.8 24 34 16 14 4 Romney +10
    Rasmussen Reports 1/16 - 1/16 750 LV 4.0 21 35 16 16 5 Romney +14
    CNN/Time 1/13 - 1/17 505 LV 4.5 23 33 13 16 6 Romney +10
    Insider Advantage 1/15 - 1/15 720 LV 3.6 21 32 14 13 5 Romney +11
    Monmouth University 1/12 - 1/15 963 LV 3.2 22 33 12 14 6 Romney +11
    PPP (D) 1/11 - 1/13 803 LV 3.5 24 29 15 14 6 Romney +5
    Rasmussen Reports 1/12 - 1/12 750 LV 4.0 21 28 16 16 6 Romney +7
    Insider Advantage 1/11 - 1/11 726 LV 3.6 21 23 13 14 5 Romney +2
    PPP (D) 1/5 - 1/7 1112 LV 2.9 23 30 9 19 5 Romney +7
    Rasmussen Reports 1/5 - 1/5 750 LV 4.0 18 27 11 24 5 Romney +3
    CNN/Time 1/4 - 1/5 485 LV 4.5 18 37 12 19 5 Romney +18
    Insider Advantage 12/18 - 12/18 736 LV 3.0 31 19 7 4 5 Gingrich +12
    Clemson Palmetto Poll 12/6 - 12/19 600 LV 4.5 38 21 10 2 5 Gingrich +17
    NBC News/Marist 12/4 - 12/6 635 LV 3.9 42 23 9 2 7 Gingrich +19
    CNN/Time 11/29 - 12/6 510 LV 4.5 43 20 6 4 8 Gingrich +23
    Winthrop 11/27 - 12/4 LV 5.4 38 22 4 3 9 Gingrich +16
    Insider Advantage 11/28 - 11/28 519 LV 4.0 38 15 7 2 4 Gingrich +23
    The Polling Company (R) 11/18 - 11/21 505 LV 4.4 31 16

    ReplyDelete
  3. When Newt implodes, and he will, Santorum will be there to consolidate the true conservative vote. And that's exactly what he needs to say every time the camera is on him.

    ReplyDelete

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