About that bounce

Ed Morrissey deconstructs the new Washington Post/ABC News poll that makes things look so rosy for Candidate Obama:

What happens when you switch from a D+4 to a D+11 in measuring Obama’s standing?  Suddenly, his job approval goes from 46% to 50% — actually, a rather weak gain given the sampling distortion in the poll.  Not coincidentally, the last time Obama hit 50% in this poll was in February, which also had a D+11 sample, after January’s D+7.  Adding seven points to the Democratic advantage impacted Obama’s performance in all areas, although perhaps not as much as the editors had hoped:

• Economy — Up six points from 38% to 44%
• International affairs — Down two points from January’s poll, 47% from 49%
• Right/wrong direction – Up three points from January

Now, with a D+11 and Republicans only comprising 23% of the respondents in this poll, one should be seeing huge leads for Obama in the head-to-head matchups.  Instead, Obama lead Romney by only eight among general-population adults, 51/43, barely getting into majority territory, and Santorum by ten, 51/41.  Among registered voters, Obama leads Romney by seven, 51/44 — in both cases, smaller than the artificial sample advantage of the poll.  In fact, adding seven more points to the Democratic advantage only resulted in Obama’s support growing by five points since March, and Romney’s dropped only four in that period.  Once again, the numbers are almost exactly like February’s poll, with its matching D+11 sample.

But hey — the Post got to write its headline, right?

Yes indeed. "Reporting" and "polling" are so much easier when you don't have any burdensome scruples about honesty.

But Candidate Obama did get a real bounce (several, actually) at yesterday's White House Easter Egg Roll extravaganza. (Related post here.)

Linked by Larwyn -- thanks!
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