Michael Barone predicts a big win for Mitt Romney. Of RCP's 11 toss-up states, he gives only two, Michigan and Nevada, to Obama. All the rest go to Romney:
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)The state he's least sure of is Pennsylvania ("Wobbling on my limb") but he notes that, according to this scenario, Romney could lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Mr. Barone's reasoning:
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.I'm nervously optimistic but can't pretend to be objective. What do you think?
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.
Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.
Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.
New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.
Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.
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I read this yesterday, too. It helps to have some pie (in the sky, as it were) but I am nervous like the rest. I didn't like seeing Obama's numbers better after Romney's highs of a week ago.
ReplyDeleteI told my wife last evening that in the past few weeks, Obama has experienced his Katrina, his 9-11 (with added incompetence and malfeasance) and also he has the worst economy to run on. That he is almost even in the polls is a dire thing.
Has the media become a fifth column? Apparently yes.
Hope he's right!
ReplyDeleteBarone should post whatever data makes him write that column.
ReplyDeleteBecause he sounds like a guy who's not reading the polls.
Indiana and Minnesota were never in doubt:
Indiana is blood red and MN is deep, deep blue.
Romney's sure to get NC, has no chance of getting Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, and has only a sleight chance of grabbing New Hampshire.
The popular vote separation will likely be less than 2% nationwide but Obama leads handily in the electoral math.
If the state polls are right, Obama beats Mitt and breaks 300 electoral votes.
Degan
I'm bracing for anything, but my gut is telling me that Romney will win.
ReplyDeleteIf he doesn't there are a lot more American people who are like the Germans during the 3rd Reich than I care to believe there are. I want to believe that goodness will prevail, but perhaps we are in for another global catachylsm.